城鎮老舊小區改造的產業關聯與波及效應分析
(1.電力規劃設計總院,北京 100120;2.中央財經大學財政稅務學院,北京 100081)
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摘要:城鎮老舊小區改造是近年來國家著力推進的一項民生工程和發展工程,對改善城市功能、提升便民服務和提高居民生活質量具有重要意義。由于產業關聯與波及效應的存在,實施老舊小區改造不僅會對建筑行業產生正向沖擊,也會對其他行業起到一定的拉動作用。因此,城鎮老舊小區改造拉動消費、擴大內需作用顯著。本文基于2017年投入產出表,測算并分析城鎮老舊小區改造的產業關聯與波及效應,厘清老舊小區改造投資的傳導機制。關鍵詞:老舊小區改造;產業關聯;波及效應Abstract:The reconstruction of old residential districts in cities and towns is a livelihood project and development project promoted by the state in recent years. It has great significance to improve urban functions,improve convenient services and residents’ quality of life. Due to the existence of industrial correlation and ripple effect,the implementation of the reconstruction of old residential districts will not only have a positive impact on the construction industry,but also pull the output of other industries. Therefore,the reconstruction of old residential districts plays a significant role in stimulating consumption and expanding domestic demand. Based on the input-output table in 2017,this paper calculates and analyzes the industrial correlation and ripple effect of old residential district reconstruction,and clarifies the transmission mechanism of investment in old district reconstruction.Keywords:old residential districtreconstruction;industry association;ripple effect參考文獻[1] 何佳霖,宋維玲.海洋產業關聯及波及效應的計量分析——基于灰色和投入產出模型[J].海洋通報,2013(5):586-594.[2] 關高峰,賀根慶.房地產業對海南經濟的關聯與波及效應研究——基于投入產出模型的實證分析[J].中央財經大學學報,2014(2):106-112.[3] 廖添土,黃嚇珠.我國建筑業的產業關聯與波及效應分析[J].長春大學學報,2012(9):1050-1054.[4] 劉起運.關于投入產出系數結構分析方法的研究[J].統計研究,2002(2):40-42.[5] 劉旭挺.基于投入產出表的甘肅省產業關聯度分析[J].甘肅理論學刊,2010(3):88-91.[6] 任澤平,潘文卿,劉起運.原油價格波動對中國物價的影響——基于投入產出價格模型[J].統計研究,2007(11):22-28.[7] 王亞偉,楊瑞,陳振,等.基于投入產出理論的河南省農業關聯效應分析[J].河南農業大學學報,2010(2):224-228.[8] 祝合良,王明雁.基于投入產出表的流通業產業關聯與波及效應的演化分析[J].中國流通經濟,2018(1):75-84.建筑經濟,2022(04):88-97